"Uncoached: Adrift and Alone"

By: Ryan Dolan


Atul Gawande made a sobering discovery.   

Gawande, a highly-respected endocrine surgeon, was the epitome of technical mastery and professional accomplishment.  A Rhodes Scholar, educated at Stanford and Harvard, Gawande believed that with the end of formalized schooling, continued improvement throughout one’s career sprang mainly from the individual’s own focus, initiative, and hard work.  Education provided the foundation, but the house was built by your own sweat.  Largely alone.  

And this mindset worked great in the early years of his career.  But by his mid-40s, Gawande noticed a change.  The almost daily, palpable improvement in performance that he had grown used to had, at first, begun to taper.  Then it seemed to cease entirely.  Though surgery is considered a late-peaking career, given the value of experience and judgment, Gawande had hit a ceiling.  Had he peaked at a relatively young age?  If that sobering prospect proved true, the best he could do was hold off the inevitable decline in his capacity.

He had experienced this arc before: the rapid and seemingly never-ending improvement, followed by a sudden and seemingly intractable peak, eventually giving way to a slow, gravitational decline.  A competitive tennis player in his youth, Gawande was one of the best players on his high school team.  In college, he realized his talent had peaked and it wasn’t good enough.   As the years passed he continued to play casually, but discovered his performance was declining along with his physical vitality.  By his 40s, his game was a pale shadow of what it had once been.  He was in the grip of an irreversible slide.  

Then Gawande, on vacation, hired an assistant pro at a local club, a competitive college player, to hit with him.  The kid began making observations about Gawande’s game and offering suggestions.   He noted a slight error in body positioning was causing a loss of pop in Gawande’s serve.  “I was dubious,” he later said, “my serve had always been the best part of my game.  But I listened…With a few minutes of tinkering, he’d added at least ten miles to my serve.  I was serving harder than I ever had in my life.”

That experience got Gawande thinking about performance and coaching.  Why, for example, do elite tennis players and golfers have coaches, yet high performers in other field-like surgery-do not?  If a one hour tennis lesson could improve the trajectory of his game, what could it do for something of far more importance- his surgical performance?

Gawande convinced a retired surgeon and mentor, a man he respected and trusted, to observe one of his procedures.  On the day of the surgery, Gawande was initially self-conscious at being observed, but was soon lost in concentration and flow.  When finished, Gawande left the operating room feeling the procedure had gone flawlessly, with little room for critique.  His “coach,” though generally complimentary, proceeded to point out- much like the tennis instructor- a list of small tweaks, from body positioning to lighting.  In aggregate, they had a profound impact on him.  “That one twenty-minute discussion gave me more to consider and work on than I’d had in the past five years…Since I have taken on a coach, my complication rate has gone down…I know that I’m learning again.  I can’t say that every surgeon needs a coach to do his best work, but I’ve discovered that I do.”

If the right coach can accelerate the performance of expert practitioners - pro athletes or surgeons - how transformational can their impact be when coaching a subject that is both crucial, but outside the student’s expertise or experience?

I was recently having a drink with a friend who’s a client.  We’ve been working together for a year, and I was asking his opinion of working together so far.  After giving it some thought, he flatly said “You know, you’re a demanding person-you have very high standards for clients.”  (It bears mentioning that I’ve heard this before - primarily from my wife and kids - it wasn’t meant as a compliment.)

Embarrassed, I started to apologize.  “No, it’s just what I needed,” he said.  He compared my approach to that of a hard-driving, football coach that had a big impact on him in high school and beyond.  He could intuit that I sincerely cared about him and his family, saw unrealized and untapped potential, and was committed to helping him get better-financially and otherwise.  

Prior to working together, my friend, a very private person, had never discussed personal financial issues with anyone, including his wife.  This common behavior often leads to bad outcomes.  As physicist Richard Feynman said “The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool.”  We can rationalize all sorts of things when we are the only one judging our actions.  Running a solitary road is also extremely stressful-as all the pressure and anxiety of your decisions and actions is on you.  

Admittedly, transparency with my friend came haltingly at first.  I got the feeling he wasn’t giving me his full unvarnished story, and wasn’t being as candid as I needed him to be.  I’ve seen a lot, and it’s hard to bullshit me-I insist on seeing all the financial data and I can piece together what happened.  I called him on it.  If he couldn’t start getting real, the advisory relationship wasn’t going to work, and we would part as friends.  

He’s far more open and communicative today.  He’s also far happier and serene than he used to be.  As I say, “Sunshine is the best disinfectant.”  Throw open the curtains on your deepest financial issues, fears and insecurities with a committed partner, and watch those issues begin to dissolve.  There is power in vulnerability.  


When I think of the clients who’ve most benefited from my process, they are, in a word, coachable.  They are committed to getting better, to living life with rigor and vigor.  They want, as one of my most coachable clients said, “A meaningful life, not an easy one.”  

They know they don’t - can’t - have all the answers.  They understand the power in more than one perspective.  They are naturally collaborative.  

Some other attributes of people who most benefit: they invest the time/bandwidth in the process, they are objective, good communicators, open to vulnerability.  It’s no coincidence that some of my most coachable clients tend to be younger (30s).  They are less stuck in their ways, less convinced they know it all, and tend to be far more open and communicative.  

What makes a good financial coach? First, he understands trust is the foundation of the entire process.  A client needs to innately trust that the advisor deeply cares about him (not just his money) and is committed to the relationship, and helping the client define his mission and helps build a plan to get there.  It helps if the coach is intelligent, both in IQ and EQ.  He needs to be patient, emotionally balanced.  He believes in the client.  And yes, he should have high standards for clients.  

This quote sums it up well:

“It’s important to have someone who you totally trust, who is totally committed, who shares your vision, and yet who has a little bit different set of skills and who also acts as something of a check on you.  Some of the ideas you run by him, you know he’s going to say, ‘Hey, wait a minute, have you thought about this and that?’ 

The benefit of sparking off somebody who’s got that kind of brilliance is that it not only makes business more fun, but it really leads to a lot of success.”

Bill Gates


Are you financially alone and adrift?  Finding the right financial coach for you could be the answer.  




"Defining the 'Why' and Crypto"

By Ryan Dolan

The central feature of my relationship with clients is just that - relational.  How can you hope to effect positive financial change in someone’s life unless you’ve invested the time and effort to know understand them?  How can you prevent them from falling victim to the constant procession of often psychologically-driven misjudgments that bedevil investors, large and small? Simple - you can’t and won’t.

You must have a process that helps people get a clear picture of their “why.”  Most people have, at best, a hazy vision of what is truly important to them, and as such, their financial actions don’t align with their values and long-term vision.  The allure of the now takes precedence over a bigger, more substantial need that is years or decades in the future.

Once we start to understand the mission, we unpack the client’s biography-personally, professionally and financially.  We need to understand the external narratives they’ve accrued over time.  We give particular focus to the e traits, thoughts and behaviors that haven’t served them.  A common source of financial misadventures?  When envy, FOMO and “shiny new object” syndrome work together to drive bad financial behavior.

When ambitious people don’t understand their mission,  they end up simply chasing more: more money, more vacations, more houses.  They view life as a high stakes zero-sum game. When someone is doing better than them financially (and there always will be), it eats away at their self-worth.  Conversely, they feel smug superiority when they are better off that others.  This is a brittle foundation to build on, and what’s worse-you are miserable throughout the journey.  

I often tell clients to think of me as an investment insurance policy.  I am there to stand in the way of the myriad financial and investment mistakes that present themselves along their road, no matter how intelligent.  It’s been said that investing is the cross section of math and psychology.  When markets get highly emotional, the risk of making a serious financial gaffe go up sharply.  We are in one of those times today, in my opinion.  

The latest in a long line of examples of investment FOMO meeting “shiny new object” syndrome is crypto.  Here is a piece I wrote for clients in December. 


Given the increasing frequency of client questions, I thought I would give my perspective on the highly-charged topic of crypto.  

Investing demands you balance two traits, which can seem at odds with each other.  First, you need to be open-minded.  The world, business and markets change and evolve-you cannot get locked in static, inflexible thinking.  So you absolutely need to be adaptable and open to change.  

On the other hand, you do need core investment beliefs that are based on unchanging principles (anchoring investments to goals, patience, having a long-term orientation, balancing greed and fear, being diversified, keeping an eye on valuations, tax efficiency, etc).  It takes some time and experience to build these-but it’s critical.  It’s why I reinforce them frequently with clients.  If not, you risk being unanchored-constantly flitting from one investment style to the next-always chasing what’s hot.  Occasionally, markets get deeply distorted and unhinged from reality.  While it continues, every fad seems to be the “next big thing.” We don’t want to fall prey to that.

With crypto, I am open-minded to the fundamental need.  Throughout history, nations have abused their currency monopoly.  From the leaders of ancient Rome clipping gold coins and melting them down to create new ones to today’s digital money printing by central banks, governments have historically resorted to currency debasement and price inflation (largely to reduce government debt).  Since the financial crisis, governments-particularly the US- have been suppressing interest rates, printing massive amounts of currency, and building up huge debt and deficits.  Thus, the idea of having an independent sound currency, not controlled by any government, is clearly very alluring.  

On the other hand, while the need is apparent, it’s unclear to me that crypto will be the solution.  First, even in the event that crypto does reach widespread adoption, there is the very real risk that an investor picks the wrong currency.  This is akin to investors in the early automotive industry.  Let’s say you had perfect foresight in the early 1900s that cars would reach massive, global adoption and scale.  Despite that, it would have been very difficult to profit from that insight.  There were hundreds of automakers, and the overwhelming majority went out of business.  Even if you paired perfect foresight with the right stock selection-picking the industry’s eventual winners-you would have generated pedestrian long-term returns.  While Bitcoin seems to have achieved dominance, the proliferation and success of other currencies is a concern.  

There is also the risk that countries will simply outlaw crypto.  Governments are slow-moving, particularly when it comes to new innovations and technology.  But regulation eventually comes.  Ask yourself, why would governments willingly give up their currency monopoly, particularly now?  The governments of China and the US can’t agree on much, but hostility to crypto is one area of alignment.  Several times in US history the federal government made it illegal for US citizens to own gold-typically at times when it would have been most beneficial for an  investor to hold it.  Why would crypto be any different?  I’ve heard the arguments why it would be challenging to outlaw crypto: it is largely untraceable (thereby impeding enforcement), and that for a ban to be potent it would need to be globally coordinated.  I get the arguments.  Nevertheless this is an overhanging, existential risk.

Finally, there’s a risk-however small- that crypto turns out to be a colossal bust or fraud that goes down in the annals of financial history, much like the Dutch tulip bulb mania in the 1600s.  For some reason, still unclear, the typically sober Dutch lost their collective minds and bid up the prices on coveted tulip bulbs to unprecedented heights-only to have the market completely collapse when sobriety returned. In a time of rampant investor speculation, if there was a time when investors would be open to an untested new asset class-this would be it.  With regards to fraud, in a world of intensifying and sophisticated cyber crime, much of it led by state actors, can you be 100% certain that crypto isn’t a fraud or ponzi scheme?  Maybe you can, but I can’t.

At the end of the day, I won’t be buying crypto for clients anytime soon, nor will I be recommending that clients do so.  Nevertheless, should clients feel an intense desire to get in on the action, let’s have a conversation.  I’ve heard a reasonable argument that for people who are true believers, having an appropriately sized, properly diversified allocation to crypto can make sense.  There is a bit of a lottery ticket approach involved.  If crypto does in fact reach long-term adoption and starts to disintermediate government currencies, the winning currency would likely go up many multiples from here.  But clients should go in with eyes wide open-it could also very easily be a zero.  Either way, the position should be small.

Caveat emptor.  



Frankly, most of you aren’t going to invest the time and energy to head out into financial deep water.  You will be too “busy” to define your why and chart a deeply congruent and rewarding financial path.  But for the minority who are, let’s have a conversation to see if an advisory relationship with Dolan Partners makes sense for you.  


www.dolanpartners.com

Exposed, Gaping Risks

By: Ryan Dolan


It happens often.  In my experience, far too often.  

I started working with a couple earlier in the year: late 30s, three kids (6, 4 and 1).  The husband, an architect, had left a high-paying position as a partner at a reputable local firm 5 years ago, to go out on his own.  The wife left her own successful career in corporate HR a few years ago to focus on raising the kids.  The couple were, simply put, impressive.  Smart, articulate, clearly competent. 

I had them walk me through their backstories, the experiences and events that had helped form them into who they are today.  The couple had successfully traversed that often tumultuous, post-college period of their 20s and early 30s.  They had matured, started to understand themselves, and began to gain traction in their lives and careers.  Having met in their late 20s (blind date), they got married in their early 30s, and started having kids shortly thereafter.  Though they grew up in very different economic environments (him: east coast affluence, her: a single, struggling, working mother), they were strongly aligned financially.  Both conservative and conscientious, they scraped and saved to pay off her student loans early.  They also built a nest egg for a sizable downpayment on their first home, which they purchased in their mid 30s in a very expensive housing market.

This couple was going places, chock full of human capital, tons of potential and a long timeline.  I love working with younger clients: the earlier you start, the more difference you can make-and the more mistakes you can help prevent. Like many couples their age (and very much unlike older generations), they viewed decision-making as a collaborative process among equals.  There would be no dominant financial spouse making all the decisions, with the other passive and without a voice.

Together, these partners had built an impressive financial foundation, and were looking forward to their future.  They instinctively knew the importance of taking calculated risks and betting on themselves.  They also knew that a strong financial base provided the stability and foundation from which you could take those risks.  Their financial conservatism had allowed the husband to fulfill his long-time ambition of starting his own firm.  

The firm’s (and the family’s) first few years were, unsurprisingly, a time of struggle and not a little anxiety and sleepless nights.  But now the business was gaining traction, and the family, after a few lean years, were back to saving aggressively.  The future, indeed, looked very bright.  We talked about what success, a life well lived, looked like to them.   We started to identify the couple’s core goals and values, priorities and transitions.  We talked about paying for the kids’ college, paying down the mortgage, retirement, charitable giving, maybe at some point a second home in Tahoe.  

I then transitioned into identifying the key risks the couple faced and their current protections against those risks.  Risk control is always at the front-end of the process. The reason is simple: while it’s absolutely appropriate to plan for decades in the future, we want to make sure we are fully cognizant of the risks that could derail long-term financial plans today.  While its impractical (and impossible) to eliminate risk, we want to identify and protect against the truly existential risks that clients face.  Those rare events that could devastate them, perhaps irreperably, financially.  

And then, as so often happens, I saw that this couple-otherwise so diligent and on-the-ball, had unconsciously retained a handful of unacceptable risk that could, potentially, unhinge decades of hard work, delayed gratification, prudent risk seeking, and good financial decision making.  Without going into the specific details, the clients had large, gaping exposure related to life insurance, business liability insurance and estate planning.  Some they were conscious of (they acknowledged that they knew they should have addressed a couple of them, but had never gotten around to it).  Others they were completely unconscious of.  

Fast forward to today.  We’ve worked through securing all the suitable protections to address these risks.  The couple is far more conscious of all the risks they are consciously retaining and those that they have secured against.  We will continually reassess how theses protections should be tweaked as they grow older and their lives and needs change.  They’ve admitted that they feel a tangible peace knowing that they’ve worked to secure what they’ve built to this point and have protected themselves and those they love.

In my career, I can’t think of one new client who didn’t have at least massive, unprotected risk exposure.  Make sure you work with an advisor who is a true fiduciary: one who deeply understands your life and your ambitions, the risks you face, and the solutions available. 



Dolan Partners LLC


Altruism: Financial Force Multiplier


By Ryan Dolan


”The only way to keep it is to give it away.” 

George Vaillant, Grant Study director


Harvard University’s Grant Study had an ambitious mission from its commencement in 1939: to closely track the lives of 268 Harvard students for decades.  A “longitudinal” study (examining a small number of subjects for very long periods of time), the quest was to identify patterns in behaviors, backgrounds, psychology, and health that conspired to create successful and unsuccessful lives.  

And what a group of students to study.  Part of the legendary “Greatest Generation,” the students were born and came of age in the the Depression, fought in World War II, and then came home and played a role in building the US into the world’s dominant global superpower.  Who better to model a successful life than this generation of driven Harvard students? 

And yet, the individual life stories varied widely.  There were many success stories, and a few luminaries-JFK and Ben Bradlee of the Washington Post to name two.  But there were also many sad stories of broken men and broken lives.  As an Atlantic profile (highly recommended by the way) pointed out, “by age 50, almost a third of the men had at one time or another met the criteria for mental illness.”

Over decades, certain things stood out.  For example, those men who, at age 50, had a stable marriage, avoided smoking, used alcohol sparingly, and exercised and maintained a normal healthy weight, were far more likely to be “happy-well” at 80.  Alcohol abuse was singled out as particularly dangerous as it affects physical and psychological health-and was a major factor in many of the men’s lives. 

While those observations may seem obvious, there were less intuitive ones as well.  The study singled out the importance of what it called a “mature adaptive style” to successful aging.  This adaptive style stemmed from a range of traits that were critical to building resilience in the face of the frustration, ambiguity, and suffering that afflicts everyone in life.  One of these traits singled out as particularly important?  Altruism.

pic.png




It is a universal desire to have a happy, successful, meaningful life.  We all want to build financial freedom and to have the autonomy and independence to live the lives we want.  And yet very few of us sustainably achieve the combination of financial security, freedom and happiness.  Why?

Work with people and their money long enough and, much like the Grant Study, patterns emerge.  Certain behaviors and traits, whether innate or consciously built over time, tend to lead to successful financial outcomes, while others work to inhibit them.  Over time, I’ve learned to place enormous importance on the fact that these beneficial traits work - and less on trying to understand why they work.  

Almost without exception, the people I know who are the happiest and most fulfilled financially tend to be altruistic and generous people.  They are the type of people you just want to be around.  While they can be  ambitious and strong-willed, these traits are tempered by a deep “other” orientation.  Though often quite personally accomplished, they tend toward humility and gratitude.  They have a quiet peace and serenity with themselves and their money.  They downplay their role in their success, and play up the role of good fortune.  Dig enough into their financial and life history, and almost inevitably you will find a deep vein of generosity running through their lives.  While initially I thought that was a byproduct of their success, increasingly I think it was a critical catalyst.

Conversely, I’ve seen many financially successful people who don’t exude these qualities.  Despite having considerable income and wealth, they don’t seem very happy, content or secure.  In their minds, money and success seems to be primarily viewed as a means to fill some inner emptiness.  Money is their means and end.  It’s all pecking order and relative status.  These people are often emotionally brittle and erratic: brimming with ego and self-confidence one day, in a pit of despair and fear the next.  They tend to think their success is all about them-their accomplishments, their talent, their ambition.  They seem anything but serene and balanced.  Almost without exception, these people tend to have little or no altruism.  Despite their success, they give little away.  They never feel like they have enough, and to give away money-no matter how much they have-seems completely alien to them.  

No matter where you fall on the generosity spectrum, we could all benefit from consciously building and fortifying an altruistic mindset.  When you start to embrace the fact that your talent and treasure are not all about you, it can radically reshape your relationship with money.  You’ll also be happier.  An added bonus is you will likely see your financial condition improved over time.  I cannot think of a single example where someone I know has materially ratcheted up their giving (within financial reason), where it didn’t translate into increased financial security and abundance down the road.  Again, I don’t know why it works-but my experience has shown it does.  

Altruism builds a healthy detachment from money-beneficially depersonalizing it.  All sorts of errant financial behaviors stem from a lack of detachment.  When you work to focus more on gratitude for what you have, and less on what you don’t have, you will often see wasteful spending and materialism decrease as giving increases.  I’ve seen generosity stoke a second wind in people’s careers.  Often, when people realize that all of their future financial needs have been met, they can lose motivation in their careers.  When they move beyond themselves and realize how their generosity can impact their children, grandchildren, or causes they believe in, their career ambition can reignite.  

Think this is all goody-goody, impractical “pie-in-the-sky” thinking?  I can’t think of anyone I know or have worked with that has embraced this mindset and not had a tangible improvement in their financial condition over time.  No one.  Ultimately, the more you can embrace the fact that your money is not about you, the happier you will be.  

How to start?  Target a percentage of income to give away this year (start small).  It should be enough that you feel it. We all want financial security, freedom and independence.  We all want to be happy and fulfilled.  I see no better start than building an altruistic mindset. 

Start today.



About Dolan Partners:

Dolan Partners is a comprehensive financial life planning firm, working hand in hand with professionals and business owners.  The mission: aligning clients’ money with their unique vision, values and goals.

We offer complimentary introductory calls with prospective clients, which are always completely confidential and judgment-free.  

Learn more at www.dolanpartners.com

What Got You Here Won't Keep You Here

By Ryan Dolan

“Sir John Templeton said something to me and it stuck in my mind...We were on a roll of fifteen wonderful years.  He said…’Always change a winning game.’  I didn’t do it because I was on a roll then and wasn’t flexible enough.”

Peter Cundill



Adapted from a true story:

The stock market is booming.  Facebook, cocktail parties, the sidelines of your kids’ sporting event: everyone’s talking about it.  An individual looks at his portfolio with a mixture of elation and disbelief.  After a decade of consistent savings and heady investment returns, his once humble portfolio has just surpassed a big round number.  A life-changing number.  Perhaps not a “quit work and retire to the south of France” number, but enough to potentially provide decades of financial security and independence for his family, if properly managed.

Starting out, he had very little assets and no familiarity with investing-though at the time, it hardly seemed to matter.  Now, though the assets have grown, and his investment results have been good, he’s still not much more knowledgeable than before.  If he’s totally candid, he’s gotten a bit lucky.  This realization has created more than a little anxiety and fear.  The financial stakes have been seriously raised.  This is real money now-with real consequences.  

He’s also concerned about the market.  Many around him, with little experience or effort, are making large profits in the market and living large.  It all seems too much. After some deliberation, and eager to shed his building anxiety, he abruptly sells everything-liquidates his entire portfolio-he’s left with $9 million in cash.

His timing proves impeccable.  The market begins an immediate cascade which quickly turns into a rout.  A year passes and the economy is reeling with seemingly no bottom in sight and the stock market is down a staggering 50%.  All the greed, speculation and exuberance have been abruptly swept away.  Pessimism and despair abound.

pic.png

Our protagonist almost can’t believe his luck.  He profited mightily during the bull market and sold out right at the top!  Everyone else appears to have gone into the crash on their front foot: overleveraged, overexposed, full of optimism.  There is no liquidity-nobody has any cash.  Banks are either suspending withdrawals or drastically limiting them.  Small banks are failing across the country. And yet here he sits with a massive pile of glorious cash.  

Almost in spite of himself, he has a yearning to jump back in.  He’s gained increasing faith and conviction in his investing-his clairvoyance. He envisions buying at the market bottom and multiplying his wealth to truly big money.  “Be greedy when others are fearful,” as the saying goes.  He plunges back in-loading up on stocks.  All $9 million.  His dividend income alone is a staggering $500,000 a year.

So, how did the story play out?

The investor wasn’t making these decisions during the last great bear market, the 2007-2009 financial crisis.  Had he been, these actions (selling in late 2007, buying in late 2008) would most likely have resulted in stupendous gains.  The $9 million could easily have become $20 million, $30 million or more by now.  Unfortunately, for this investor, he was operating in the greatest wealth incinerator in American financial history: the Great Depression.  After selling out in 1929, he jumped back in 1930, well before the ultimate market low in 1932.  Within a year his $9 million dollar portfolio (adjusted to today’s dollars) was worth less than $2 million and his dividend income was cut to virtually nothing.  It’s almost hard to fathom buying stocks down 50% only to see them marked down 80% from there.  But that’s what happened.  Many stocks went to zero.  

This unfortunate story is from “The Great Depression: A Diary,” by Benjamin Roth.  The Depression was such a violent and extended financial and economic collapse, that virtually no one emerged unscathed. What surprised me wasn’t the people who got carried away by greed only to experience financial ruin.  It also wasn’t the non-investors-everyday people who were crushed by joblessness and poverty.  I knew those stories.  

Rather, it was the many stories of individuals Roth personally knew who, through good fortune or financial clairvoyance, found themselves just prior to the 1929 market peak both very wealthy and very liquid.  People who had sold businesses, or received a large inheritance or had completely exited the stock market.  And yet many, if not most, still managed to lose it all by making a host of financial and investment mistakes.  Those stories surprised me.


Which brings me to my point,  Which is harder: building wealth in the first place or keeping it?  Getting there or staying there?  While both present their unique challenges, I contend that sustaining wealth is far more difficult.  I don’t think it’s close.  Why?  Ultimately, while there are really only a handful of paths to building wealth, the number of ways to lose it are innumerable.  Landmines are everywhere. Often, lost wealth comes down to unforced errors.  

Live long enough and you start to see this validated.  I have known many people who at one time had built meaningful (for them) wealth. Given enough time, most (60-80%?) were unable to sustain.  The majority didn’t necessarily blow up in spectacular fashion (though a few certainly did that).  Rather, they experienced a slow, relentless decline in financial security and lifestyle.  A decade or two later, their financial condition had deteriorated meaningfully.  In many ways, these people were the most unhappy.  Regret, and a sense of what could have been, of missed opportunities, haunt them.  

We are currently in a period of significant wealth creation.  Many people have accumulated meaningful assets over the last 5 and 10 years, many for the first time.  If history is a guide, when the tide turns (and it always turns), many will learn some very old, very painful financial lessons. 

How do you avoid this?  A few thoughts:

You need humility.  You may be feeling really validated and puffed up right now. Beware assuming your success is attributable only to you-your talent, hard work, ambition.  Assume luck, good fortune,  and a few good bounces had a good bit to do with it.  Arrogance is a key vulnerability to sustaining wealth.  You need to cultivate a healthy balance between self-confidence and humility.  Make sure you have people around, people you trust, who can point this virus out when it appears.  

You need patience.  Sustaining wealth is a long-term game.  Wealth creators tend to be impatient, action-oriented people.  It’s what got them where they are.  But what got you here won’t keep you here financially.  You need someone who can help you develop these contrasting skills as it relates to your financial life.  Really important.

You need to increasingly balance optimization with resiliency.  We live in an optimization culture-one where decisions are made based on what could go right.   Not a great mindset for sustaining wealth.  You need to increasingly ask yourself “what if I’m wrong?”  When you do so, your financial behaviors will better sustain what the future holds.  


You've built some meaningful wealth.  That’s great.  Now start building the mindset, behaviors and tactics to sustain it. 


About Dolan Partners:

Dolan Partners is a comprehensive financial life planning firm, working hand in hand with professionals and business owners.  The mission: aligning clients’ money with their unique vision, values and goals.

We offer complimentary introductory calls with prospective clients, which are always completely confidential and judgment-free.  

Learn more at www.dolanpartners.com



Day Trading: Diving Into Shark-Infested Waters with a Bloody Nose

By: Ryan Dolan

(Note: This piece, originally published in May 2020, seemed apropos of the day trading frenzy that has erupted in the last couple of months).



“We’re going to need a bigger boat.”

Chief Brody, “Jaws”



I worked as a stock trader at a technology-focused investment bank in the late 1990s.  Though I didn’t fully appreciate it at the time, I was sitting at ground zero of a full-scale investment mania.  It was an incredible, wild and manic time in financial history, with large fortunes being minted at an almost unprecedented pace.  And like moths drawn to the flame, a large wave of individual stock day traders rushed into the chaos, desperate to grab a piece.  While there have always been day traders in the market, a few factors conspired to lure an unprecedented number of these small, inexperienced, short-term “investors” into the market in the late 1990s.

First,  the stock market had been in a 15 year bull market, with tech stocks entering a full scale euphoric bubble.  Late stage bull markets and bubbles, those times when investing seems easiest and profits the most certain, are the perfect enticement to the uninitiated investor. What was unique to the late 1990s, however, and what ultimately sparked such a mass invasion of day traders, was the proliferation of cheap, online discount brokers and widespread internet access.  People could trade stocks at home in their pajamas.  This combination of a high risk environment and widespread access to the market was the equivalent of handing a 15 year old a bottle of whiskey and the car keys.  

And initially, many of these investing neophytes were making large and consistent trading profits, dancing in and out of stocks multiple times a day.  Anecdotal success stories were everywhere.  A college buddy, with no investment experience,  who had supposedly made close to a million dollars trading stocks in a year while in business school.  Or a friend of a friend who quit his job as a realtor to day trade stocks full time.  Who had time to show a house when there was big money to be made in the market?  The sense of easy riches, of a new economy with new rules, drew more and more traders into the market, further exacerbating the bubble.  Anyone not participating simply didn’t get it and would miss the gold rush.  By early 2000, it seemed everyone, even the early critics, had capitulated and grabbed a seat in the casino.

pic.png


Fast forward a year, and the day trader, the market and technology stocks lay in smoldering ruins.  The bubble had turned to bust; the clock had struck midnight.  The day trader went over the falls and the pain was relentless and never-ending.  By the end of the long bear market in 2003, you no longer heard about day trading.  All those who had been crowing about their success a few years earlier were conspicuously silent and clearly licking their financial wounds.  The very term “day trader” became synonymous with greed, foolishness and ignominy.  


It’s taken almost twenty years later, but the day trader is back, amidst echoes of that prior golden era.  Once again, we’ve had a long bull market with technology stocks the stars.  Now, rock bottom interest rates have pushed many out on the risk curve looking for yield and growth.  Conveniently, those low rates allow brokerage accounts to be leveraged cheaply, magnifying gains (and losses).  Discount brokerage firms have slashed commissions (to zero in some cases), and new robo advisors like Robinhood have increasingly “gamified” investing for millennials.  

While the number of day traders has been picking up quietly for years, the onset of the Coronavirus has turned this trickle into a tsunami.  People are stuck at home, maybe out of work, bored and unable to gamble on sports or in a casino. The stock market has become the speculative vehicle of choice.  The number of new brokerage and robo accounts opened in the last 3 months has been unprecedented.  

I can say, with categorical conviction, that this will end badly.  I could list dozens of reasons why day trading, even with a small portion of your portfolio, will negatively impact your long-term financial health.  I’ll focus here on just a few reasons why you should avoid it:


-Jumping into a shark tank with a bloody nose:  Day traders, in the search for consistent, short-term profits, are unwittingly and naively, entering a very dangerous competitive arena.  These are treacherous waters, stocked with apex predators.   The amount of human, financial and technological capital that a day trader is competing with today, whether he knows it or not, is mind-boggling.  As the saying goes, if you don’t know who the mark is at a poker table-it’s you.  You need to have a realistic view of your competitive advantages and disadvantages, and focus on fishing in the right pond.  Short-term trading is not the pond.  Trust me.


-Getting a good result with a bad process/the typical life-cycle of a day trader:  The day trader starts out hesitatingly and cautiously, by betting small.  Then he starts making money.  This positive feedback builds confidence and conviction.  Over time, the bet sizes increase. The trader thinks he is getting a good result, so by default he must have a sound process.  Unfortunately, he most likely has simply gotten lucky.  Just when the day trader has the most confidence in what is inherently a bad process, he is most exposed financially to a turn in his luck.  When his process gets exposed, the trader often has a desperate desire to “get back to even” before he gets out, which tends to magnify the losses.


-Day trading is a bad use of your human capital:  Day trading is a distraction-it’s all short-term dopamine hits and adrenaline that ultimately doesn’t serve you financially.  Resist this siren song.  You have two forms of capital: human and financial.  Your human capital is your future income stream.  We work primarily with high-earning professionals in mid-career.  They have a lot of human capital left, and considerable control over it.  They are FAR better served focused on developing and maximizing their human capital, then dissipating their focus on trading. Day trading ultimately serves to dilute your human and financial capital.  


-The financial double-whammy: When the day trader has suffered a devastating reversal there is the immediate financial pain of the money lost trading.  That’s obvious.  More insidious is the long-term financial damage from this ill-advised foray.  The typical busted day trader spends years licking his wounds, refusing to even look at the stock market again.  The lesson often learned is “stocks are bad” instead of reinvesting with a sound investment methodology.  This considerable opportunity cost often dwarfs the actual amount lost day trading.  



A lot of success in life boils down to avoiding mistakes. All too often we learn by making mistakes ourselves.  Hopefully then we can, internalize the lesson, and adjust our behavior in the future.  A far better approach is to learn vicariously from others' mistakes.   You would be far better off completely avoiding day trading altogether.  You don’t need to make this mistake yourself.  I get it-the lure of quick and “easy” money is tempting.  It’s a mirage.  All successful financial planning and investment is about making slow, steady, relentless progress and letting that compound over decades.  


Stay dry-and safe-on the beach.





About Dolan Partners:

Dolan Partners is a holistic financial life planning and investment management firm, working hand in hand with professionals and business owners.  We dive deeply into clients' financial lives, working to align their money with their unique vision, values and goals.

We offer complimentary introductory calls with prospective clients, which are always completely confidential and judgment-free.  

Learn more at www.dolanpartners.com



Ryan P. Dolan

Managing Partner

Dolan Partners LLC

100 School St.

Danville, CA  94526

The Critical Interplay Between Your Human and Financial Capital

By: Ryan P. Dolan

“You are your own biggest asset by far.  Anything you do to improve your own talents and make yourself more valuable will get paid off in terms of appropriate real purchasing power...Anything you invest in yourself, you get back tenfold.  [And unlike other assets and investments] nobody can tax it away; they can’t steal it from you.”

Warren Buffett




Money.  Wealth.  Capital.

Whatever you call it, money occupies a lot of our attention.  And yet in my experience people don’t seem to fully appreciate that their money consists of two distinct buckets.  The first is rather obvious: the tangible and measurable financial capital you have today.  Far less obvious is your innate human capital.  Financial capital and human capital.  Only when you understand these two forms of money and how they interact, can you begin to optimize both.

Human capital encompasses everything which allows you to thrive career-wise, whether as an architect, a software programmer, or a lawyer.  It’s a composite of your hard and soft skills: your intelligence, experience, network, commercial sensibility, along with the persistence and grit that has propelled your success.  It could be your unique entrepreneurial vision, your incomparable sales or negotiating skill, or your ability to see a little bit further over the business horizon than your competitors.  Importantly it should consider your potential, how high your proverbial ceiling is and how likely you are to close that gap.  Though you can’t put your hands on human capital like you can your financial capital, it is every bit as real and as important.  Probably more so.  

There are too many variables and unknowns to pinpoint the value of your human capital, but you can come up with a broad estimate.   Take a 35 year old software executive: she makes $400,000 in salary and bonus; wants to work until she is 65, and has a current net worth of $2 million.  Let’s say we anticipate her income to grow at the inflation rate of 3% per year for 30 years (I realize this is an oversimplification).  Over the balance of her career, our subject will have earned a total aggregate income of around $19 million.  As we know, a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.  Discounting that income stream to today’s dollars yields human capital of  around $4-$5 million.  So here’s our 35 year old, with $2 million in financial capital, and human capital of more than twice that.  For high performing, high income professionals and business owners in their 30s and 40s, this is a common, if underappreciated, financial composition.  

While most advisors focus on financial capital (it’s how they get paid after all), I work to maximize and integrate financial capital with human capital.  An appreciation of the magnitude of human capital can help reorient client attention and focus. It clarifies for them how important it is to prioritize, preserve and augment their human capital.  They realize they have far more control, influence and skill at managing the trajectory of their human capital than their financial capital, and as such should avoid straying into areas they don’t have domain expertise-like financial planning and portfolio management.  This is a common risk for smart, accomplished people to do, but it is critical. 

pic.png



Working hand in hand with clients, I work to cut clutter, needless complexity, block out noise.  We attack complacency, and negative inertia. I work to leverage a client’s precious and finite time by allowing them to outsource everything they don’t need or want to do, while ensuring they are focused on the handful of core, high-value tasks and priorities that are most relevant. When this process is done right, clients find their financial capital moves from being either an afterthought or a cause of anxiety to a source of security, stability and confidence to focus primarily on their core human capital and priorities.  

 


I recently read a book which illustrated this interplay between human and financial capital.  “Churchill’s Money” by David Lough is a fascinating look at Winston Churchill and his fraught relationship with money.  Here is someone with undeniably high amounts of human capital: raw intelligence, bravery, an indefatigable work ethic, literary talent  with unparalleled vision and insight.  And yet Churchill was incompetent financially.  Hopelessly so.  I found it exhausting and demoralizing to read of Churchill’s chronic overspending, gambling, risk taking and just sheer financial foolishness over the span of decades.  I can’t imagine living it.  

You may say that Churchill achieved an immense amount with his human capital, and his financial difficulties didn’t seem to impact that.  I disagree.  Churchill struggled with periodic and debilitating depression throughout his life, “the black dog” he called it.  It’s hard to see how his financial behavior didn’t aggravate that.  His gambling and stock market losses caused his long-suffering wife, Clementine, stress and anxiety.  Professionally, in the crucible of WWII, when Churchill needed all his focus and faculties, he was often dealing with an emergency financial issue such as a bank overdraft, an investment gone wrong, or a problem with the tax authorities.  Finally, throughout his life, Churchill needed to be bailed out by wealthy supporters when his financial distress overwhelmed him, which leaves lingering questions about whether this impacted his political objectivity. 

Give some thought to your human and financial capital.  Are both working together, pulling an oar in the same direction?  Or are they getting in the way of each other with negative implications for your life?  






About Dolan Partners:

Dolan Partners is a holistic financial life planning and investment management firm, working hand in hand with professionals and business owners.  We dive deeply into clients' financial lives, working to align their money with their unique vision, values and goals.

We offer complimentary introductory calls with prospective clients.  

Learn more at www.dolanpartners.com



Dolan Partners LLC

100 School St.

Danville, CA  94526





This commentary on this website reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints and analyses of Dolan Partners Wealth management and Ryan P. Dolan, and should not be regarded as a description of advisory services provided by Dolan Partners Wealth Management or performance returns of any Dolan Partners Wealth Management client. 

The views reflected in the commentary are subject to change at any time without notice. Nothing on this website constitutes investment advice, performance data or any recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. 

Any mention of a particular security and related performance data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. Dolan Partners Wealth Management manages its clients’ accounts using a variety of investment techniques and strategies, which are not necessarily discussed in the commentary. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.



Financial Kaizen: The Anti-Hack

By: Ryan P. Dolan



“Continuous improvement is better than delayed perfection.”

Mark Twain


“When you improve a little each day, eventually big things occur.  Not tomorrow, not the next day, but eventually a big gain is made.  Don’t look for the big quick improvement.  Seek the small improvement one day at a time.  That’s the only way it happens-and when it happens-it lasts.”

John Wooden


When I first started working with financial planning clients, I was brimming with vim and vigor, eager to drive radical financial improvement in their lives-quickly.   I deluged clients with 50 page reports full of reams of financial data and projections.  I identified a dozen priorities and associated ambitious action items.  I’d highlight, for example, that a client needed to dedicate more time to financial planning and strategy; needed far more life insurance; needed to untangle a spider web of unnecessary financial complexity;  needed to have a better grasp of the priorities and transitions they were likely to face; needed to engage in estate planning; increase their saving rate; invest with more rigor and emotional control.  


The response? As you might imagine, there was a lack of engagement, follow-through and accountability from many clients.  What’s more, they felt overwhelmed, and often discouraged at coming face to face with both the scale of what needed to be done, and their lack of progress in doing it.   Some said they felt they were letting me down.  True, some clients liked the pace of change and were able to manage it, but the majority did not.  I felt hamstrung and demoralized and uncertain how to turn it around.


It took me a discouragingly long time to realize that the problem was not my clients- it was my process.  This blitzkrieg, siege-mentality approach simply was simply not the best way to get client buy-in.  It was too much, too soon.  Over time, and through much trial and error, I adapted my approach.  At its core, my process comes down to melding the principles of kaizen with financial planning and portfolio management.

pic.png


Kaizen, popularized in Japanese industry in the 1980s, is a philosophy of continuous improvement through small incremental steps.  Most of us approach any plan for growth and improvement in a similar way: we set big, audacious goals on a short deadline which demand radical changes to have any hope of success.  In short order, our willpower gives out and we abandon the process, feeling frustrated at our incapacity to change.  This is an exceedingly common affliction with many of the clients I work with: driven, type-A, overachievers.   

Kaizen is a philosophy that implicitly recognizes that all improvement takes time, demands patience and accountability, as well as an understanding of how our minds approach change. At the outset of using kaizen, it can often seem like the steps are laughably simple and easy.  The mind wants to circumvent the process by asking how such laughably low expectations can produce anything worthwhile.  This instinct needs to be ignored.  By jumping over low initial hurdles, which do not trigger the fear and anxiety of unrealistic goals, we are encouraged and motivated to take on more.  At the same time, blocks and flawed ways of thinking and acting start to dissolve, and our creativity in finding new areas of growth improves.  


My process today, quite simply, is to simply meet clients where they are.  It’s akin to learning to surf.  You start on the biggest, fattest surfboard that you can stand up on.  As soon as you can stand and ride a tiny wave, you immediately move to a slightly smaller board.  You slowly, but continually keep moving to smaller and smaller boards right when the current one becomes comfortable.  We all start from a different initial level.  Some clients come to me fairly organized, focused and accountable, with only a handful of priorities and areas for improvement. They start on one board.   Others, despite career success, a high income and good net worth, have largely ignored their finances or have  made several large financial mistakes.  No matter.  Each starts on a board that’s comfortable for them.  

  

The initial change and implementation of kaizen-based financial planning is the slowest.  However over time, as accountability and growth start to occur, clients feel encouraged by the process and we can increase the rate of growth.  All sound financial planning and investing comes down to plodding, but relentless improvements that can accrue, given a long enough timeline, to astounding things.  All sustainable change takes time, but that time can be reduced with a dedicated coach continuously, but gently, pushing you to switch to a smaller financial surfboard.  





About Dolan Partners:

Dolan Partners is a holistic financial life planning and investment management firm, working hand in hand with professionals and business owners.  We dive deeply into clients' financial lives, working to align their money with their unique vision, values and goals.

We offer complimentary introductory calls with prospective clients, which are always completely confidential and judgment-free.  

Learn more at www.dolanpartners.com


Dolan Partners LLC

100 School St.

Danville, CA  94526